- Apr 16, 2018 -
In 2016, the IC market for cars and other vehicles was $22.9 billion, up 11% from the same period last year. Sales in 2017 are estimated to be $28 billion, up 22% from 2018 to $32.4 billion.The market is expected to grow to $42.9 billion by 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.4 percent.
The auxiliary driving ADAS system, the electric vehicle battery management BMS system, the automobile intelligent center control screen, the reversing image and so on many kinds of new automobile electronic application growth kinetic energy is strong.No matter whether the automobile is a traditional energy source or a new energy source in the future, the direction of the automobile towards intelligence, entertainment and information is an inevitable trend. The two major trends of electric and intelligent will lead to a substantial increase in the consumption of electronic components.The proportion of electronic components in cars will be higher and higher.As the "mother of electronic products", automotive PCB industry depth benefits from the trend of electronic vehicles.
At present, the traditional automobile electronic degree is not high, the demand for PCB is small and the value of PCB is also relatively low.According to the data of PCB, the proportion of PCBs in the whole cost of electronic device is about 2%. The average amount of PCB per car is about 1 square meter, valued at 60 dollars, and the consumption of high-end models is 2-3 square meters, with a value of 120-130 dollars.However, as cars become more intelligent and entertaining, these functions become more and more complicated, which makes the demand of traditional cars for PCB not only in the amount of layers, but also in the quality and high end board.
1.1.1 New Energy vehicles significantly boost PCB demand
Compared with traditional vehicles, new energy vehicles have a significant increase in demand for PCB because of their unique power system.Electronic devices account for about 25% of the cost of traditional high-class cars, and 45-65% of new energy vehicles.
The increment of PCB value brought by new energy vehicle consists of two parts: the superposition increment brought by hybrid electric vehicle and the substitute increment brought by pure electric vehicle.In general, whether hybrid or pure electric, the specific sources of PCB increment are mainly from three power control systems, BMS VCU and MCU:
The main control circuit in the battery management system is about 0.24 square meters for PCB, and the unit price can be up to 20000 yuan / square meter, and the consumption of PCB for monomer management unit is 3-5 square meters.
The control circuit in the whole vehicle controller ( VCU ) is about 0.03 square meters for PCB .
The control circuit of motor controller MCU is about 0. 15 square meter to PCB.
Different control units for PCB plate process requirements are different, there is a big difference between the price of the product, with VCU and MCU PCB for the general board, the added value is not high, the price of 1000 yuan / square meters. The estimated amount of PCB in the vehicle, 5-8 square meters, the new value is about 4000 yuan, much higher than the traditional car.
National policy strongly supports the development of new energy automobile market.According to the "Technology Roadmap for Energy-saving and New Energy vehicles", the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in China reached more than 7% in 2020, more than 20% in 2025, and increased to more than 40% in 2030.China's new energy vehicle market space is still huge.On the whole, we believe that China's new energy vehicle market will continue to develop rapidly under the dual driving of policy and market.
In 2015-2017, the domestic production of new energy vehicles was 37.9% 51.7 and 794000 respectively. Taking into account the policy objectives, the impact of the credit system and the sales planning of automobile enterprises, the domestic new energy vehicle output was estimated to be 100120 and 1.5 million in 2018-2020, respectively.The corresponding market penetration rate will gradually increase to about 5%.According to this calculation, by 2020, new energy vehicles will bring at least 6 billion yuan market increment to domestic automobile plate market.Total sales of new energy vehicles will reach 6 million by 2020, according to the Global Energy Agency, which estimates that new energy vehicles will bring nearly 24 billion market increments to the global automotive plate market.
1.1.2, 2020 our country intelligent driving market scale is expected to reach 120 billion yuan
At present, the L1 class intelligent driving has been popularized and the L2 level is rapidly advancing. EU legislation requires cars to be fitted with emergency automatic brakes before November 2013, while Volvo's urban safety system, Honda's CMBS system and Mercedes-Benz Pre-Safe system, etc.The L3 level, which belongs to this stage, already has a large amount of technical reserve, but the function is not stable. L4 level is the ultimate development goal.According to the targets of the competitors, smart cars are expected to be commercialized successfully by 2020.
China is also expected to realize the initial intelligent driving in 2020. "made in China" 2025 clearly put forward that, by 2020, master the overall technology of intelligent assisted driving and key technologies, and initially establish the intelligent network couplet automobile independent research and development system and production supporting system.By 2025, master the overall technology of autopilot and key technologies, establish a more complete intelligent network of automotive research and development system, production system and industrial cluster.
The penetration rate of intelligent driving in the automobile market is increasing continuously. The market of the ADAS system is growing rapidly. The penetration rate of ADAS in our country is about 15%, which has gradually penetrated into the middle market from the original high-end market.However, there are still a large number of intelligent passenger cars in class 1-2 level.With the further expansion and perfection of the function and the encouragement and even mandatory requirements of the policy, according to the Analysys forecast, the future growth rate will be more than 20%. By 2020, the scale of the smart driving market in China is expected to reach 120 billion yuan. ADAS multi-operation control.Security control, peripheral control functions need PCB to achieve, it is expected that in the future fully self-driving cars will be equipped with more PCB to meet the demand.
1. 2, 5G, communication industry is expected to greatly drive the demand of high frequency and high speed PCB
5G (fifth generation communication technology) has higher performance than 4G, supports 0.1-1Gbps user experience rate, 1 million connection density per square kilometer, millisecond end-to-end delay, tens of Tbps traffic density per square kilometer.Mobility over 500Km per hour and peak rates of tens of Gbps.Among them, user experience rate, connection number density and delay are the three most basic performance indicators.At the same time, 5G will also significantly improve network deployment and operational efficiency, compared with 4G, spectrum efficiency is increased 5-15 times, energy efficiency and cost efficiency more than 100 times.
The 5G base station will rely on the existing 4G base station to be deployed as the "master station".The first 5G standard completed the NSA-5G NR related technical specification, mainly for enhanced mobile broadband scenarios.The so-called NSAs is that 4G core network is used by 4G base station and 5G base station, and the control surface signaling goes through 4G channel, that is to say, 5G NRs are added to the existing 4G LTE network by dual connection.
Compared with the 4G LTE access network, the BBU and RRU two-level architecture (5G RAN) will evolve into the CUDU and AAU tertiary structures.
CU: the non-real-time part of the original BBU will be split up and redefined as CU(Centralized Unit, a centralized unit responsible for handling non-real-time protocols and services.
Some of the physical layer processing functions of AAU:BBU are combined with the original RRU to form AAU active Antenna unit, and active antenna processing unit.
The remaining functions of DU:BBU are redefined as DU(Distribute Unit, a distributed unit responsible for handling physical layer protocols and real-time services.
We expect early 5 G deployments to be similar to 4G, with only prequels and returns.However, in the early 5G deployment, the frequency band of 3.5GHz may be used. Because the 3.5GHz band is higher and the coverage range of single station is smaller, the number of 5G base stations needed to reach the same coverage scale as 4G is at least 1.5-2 times that of 4G.
Millimeter wave development to promote the construction of thousands of small base stations.In the future, the transmission rate of the 5G network can reach 20Gbps-200 times the peak value of 4G. The increase of transmission speed requires a higher frequency band, but the higher the frequency band, the smaller the coverage of electromagnetic waves and the weaker the signal permeability, so the operators have to deploy more base stations.Compared to the 4G era, the number of million base stations is expected to break through the five-gigabyte base station scale.
5 G new communication base station has a large demand for high frequency circuit board.A high frequency circuit usually refers to a circuit operating at a frequency above 1GHz, which must meet two requirements: 1) the dielectric constant must be small and stable, and the high dielectric constant should easily cause the signal transmission delay to be small, and the dielectric loss must be small, which affects the quality of the signal transmission.The smaller the dielectric loss, the smaller the signal loss.These two requirements for the manufacturing process of high frequency PCB are very high, so the technical barrier of high frequency PCB is higher, and the profit margin is much higher than other traditional PCB products.
Globally, the 5G will be officially commercially available by 2020.According to the plan of our country, it is expected to go through three stages: first, the technical research and development experiment, which has been completed at present; second, the verification of the technical scheme, which has now been started; and third, the system verification.By the end of 2018, the construction of 5G network will be started in 2019 and commercial 5G network will be launched in 2020.
China's 5G construction investment is expected to reach 7050 billion yuan, an increase of 56.7 billion yuan over 4G investment.Currently, there are about 3 million 4G Acer stations in China, including China Mobile 1.44 million, China Telecom 860000 and China Unicom 700000. The three major operators are expected to add another 4G Acer Station 600000 in 2017, when the country's 4G coverage phase will be basically over.The three major operators are expected to invest more than 4500 billion yuan in 4G network construction, or 125000 yuan for a single base station.The number of future 5G Acer stations will be 1. 25 times that of 4G, or about 4.5 million.Considering that 5G base stations will significantly increase the use of RF devices and antennas, the average cost of a single base station is expected to be 1.25 times that of 4G.Overall, China's 5G construction investment is expected to reach 705 billion yuan, up 56.7% over 4G investment.
In addition to base station, mobile phone terminal is also an important part of wireless network, and the upgrade speed is very fast, and the rise of 5G mobile phone promotes the development of 5G.
First, the release of the first 5G NR standard means that handset chipmakers can develop chips according to this standard, but because the underlying technologies of LTE and 5G NR are not the same, it is necessary to add 5G chips to the mobile phone to support 5G, so users need to change their phones.At the same time, the mobile phone has to understand the signaling of LTE and 5G NR at the same time because of the dual connection between LTE and 5G NR.Second, for 5 G terminals, the transmission power needs to be increased to enhance uplink coverage.
Finally, in order to better support Massive MIMO technology, the terminal will support 4 or 8 receiving antennas and uplink beamforming to enhance the uplink single user rate and coverage.Combined with the above three points, we think that it is only through the generation to realize the interconnection with the 5G network, so with the rise and popularity of 3C products such as 5G mobile phones, it will undoubtedly greatly pull the demand of high-end PCB.